Gillette & Associates · Market Intelligence

Nanaimo, August 2026: A Market Finding Its Balance

Single-family homes, 60-day look-back across active, pending and sold inventory. 641 properties analyzed.

Inventory overview
Months of Inventory

Neither buyer's nor seller's market: right in the middle.

4.6months

449 active single-family listings against a combined absorption of 192 properties (103 sold + 89 pending) over 60 days, a pace of roughly 97 homes moving per month.

That lands squarely in balanced-market territory (4 to 6 months), with a slight tilt toward buyers. Pending sales are counted as already-absorbed demand, since that inventory has left the active pool even before closing.

Price reality
Price Reality

The median tells the truth; the average tells a story about luxury listings.

$791Kmedian sold
  • Active (asking) $949,000 median / $1,138,224 mean
  • Pending (asking) $836,500 median / $932,188 mean
  • Sold (closed) $791,000 median / $858,364 mean

Active mean sits about 20% above active median. A handful of estate listings up to $6.5M are pulling the average up. For a read on "typical," use the median.

Speed to sale
Speed To Sale

Homes that sell, sell faster than what's still sitting.

28days median
  • Sold (time to close) 28 days median / 40.6 mean
  • Pending (time to contract) 36 days median / 41.9 mean
  • Active (still sitting) 46 days median / 58.5 mean

The active pool skews toward longer-sitting stock, consistent with the inventory overhang. One 299-day relist skews the sold mean; the 28-day median is the fairer read.

List-to-sell ratio: 98.9% median (95.9% mean). Most homes are closing near their original asking price, not a chased-down one.

North Nanaimo
Most Active Area

North Nanaimo is where the market is actually moving.

32transactions
  • 1. North Nanaimo 32
  • 2. South Nanaimo 21
  • 3. Uplands 18
  • 3. Departure Bay 18
  • 5. University District 15
  • 6. Central Nanaimo 13
  • 7. Chase River / Cedar 12 each
Floor plan story
Floor Plan Absorption

Ranchers and split entries are outselling their supply.

21.9% of sales

from just 15.1% of active inventory

LayoutActive ShareTxn ShareRead
Rancher15.1%21.9%Outperforming
Split Entry6.5%12.0%Outperforming
Main Level Entry, Upper15.1%16.7%Slightly up
Ground Level Entry w/ Main Up21.2%18.2%Proportional
Main Level Entry, Lower/Upper9.8%9.4%Proportional
Main Level Entry, Lower Level(s)27.4%16.1%Underperforming
Home sale scene
Closing The Deal

Sellers are getting close to their original number.

98.9% median

Median list-to-sell ratio, measured against original list price rather than the price shown at close, since Price Current gets overwritten to the sold price once a listing closes, so original list is the only clean "before it moved" figure.

Mean sits lower, at 95.9%, pulled down by a handful of larger reductions on higher-priced properties before they found a buyer.

The read for August

A market settling into balance: 4.6 months of inventory, homes closing within a point of their original ask, and demand concentrating in North Nanaimo, Ranchers and Split Entry layouts. The one soft spot: Main Level Entry with Lower Level(s) homes make up over a quarter of active inventory but only a sixth of what's moving.

Canadian national economic context
National & Provincial Context

The Backdrop Behind Every Local Number

Nanaimo doesn't trade in isolation. Rates, inflation, debt loads and population shifts set the conditions every local buyer and seller is working within this month.

  • BoC policy rate2.25%
  • Prime rate4.45%
  • 5-yr fixed mortgage3.94–4.09%
  • July 2026 inflation (CPI)3.0% y/y
  • Canada household debt-to-incomeHighest in G7 (~176%)

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October 2025 (last confirmed July 15, 2026), with variable rates now pricing below fixed in some products. Inflation sits at the upper edge of the 1–3% target band, but core measures remain closer to 2%. Canadian households continue to carry the heaviest debt load in the G7, a structural headwind on affordability that shows up most in entry-level demand. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada (Jul 2026 CPI, released Aug 17), OECD Household Debt Indicator.

Population and migration
Population & Migration

Both Canada and B.C. Are Shrinking, For the First Time on Record

-0.7% B.C., 2025
  • B.C. population, Apr 1 20265,646,420
  • B.C. change, Q1 2026-12,108 (-0.2%)
  • Canada population, Apr 1 202641,417,056
  • Canada change, Q1 2026-55,025 (-0.1%)

Both B.C. and Canada posted their first annual population decline on record in 2025 — though not their first quarterly decline; Statistics Canada notes isolated quarterly dips going back through the comparable record starting in 1951. The driver is not British Columbians leaving for other provinces — interprovincial migration into B.C. has stayed modestly positive. It's the collapse in non-permanent residents (down 117,879 nationally in Q1 2026 alone) following federal immigration caps. Fewer net new households forming is a demand headwind, concentrated at entry-level and rental-investor stock. Sources: BC Stats Quarterly Population Highlights, CPABC BC Check-Up Q1 2026, Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates (released Jun 17, 2026).

Vancouver market summary
Greater Vancouver Snapshot

The Region's Largest Market Is Cooling Faster Than Nanaimo's

MeasureFigure
2025 total sales23,800 (weakest in 20+ years)
Composite benchmark, Jul 2026$1,088,800 (-6.2% y/y)
Detached benchmark$1,822,900
Townhouse benchmark$1,030,400
Apartment benchmark$688,000

Greater Vancouver logged its weakest sales year in over two decades in 2025, and prices have continued to soften through the summer: the composite benchmark is down 6.2% year over year with inventory sitting above seasonal norms. By contrast, Nanaimo's own single-family benchmark held at $822,200, up roughly 1% year over year as of August 2026. That divergence is consistent with Nanaimo continuing to capture buyers priced out of the Lower Mainland even as broader Island activity softens. Sources: Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) monthly market report, CREA, late summer 2026.

Reading the Bigger Picture

Steady rates, inflation near target, the heaviest household debt load in the G7, and a national population now shrinking for the first time on record: together these describe a market absorbing pressure from multiple directions at once. Nanaimo's relative resilience against a softening Greater Vancouver is the local story worth watching over the next quarter.

Please verify any information before relying on it. This report draws on third-party data pulled into our analytics platform (MLS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, and other public sources) — figures can change or be revised after publication. Important details should be independently verified before being used for a decision.